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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple formula. It frequently acts as a kind of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your squad in our preseason predictions.

On paper, it's a direct path: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic turnaround wins the prize. In reality, it fuels an annual argument about expectations and whether we're truly honoring superior leadership or just the most shocking surprise.

However the current race is fundamentally unique. The list of nominees is exceptionally strong. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent division champions falling away and recent also-rans improving in unison. During an normal season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in such a chaotic and fun season, he's competing with multiple other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the projected vote ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been given the opportunity to display his otherworldly ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's sustained excellence. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an offense built entirely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action and a innovative aerial game that creates wide-open receivers all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been able to conjure magic out of broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Virtually every decision – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the building with the kind of hype Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive genius but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a typical season, he would be the runaway choice. Yet the current isn't a normal campaign!

The area where Johnson's case comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained success. But Johnson falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has masterminded a swift resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has nailed the off-field stuff, which was not a certainty after his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching blend of youth and experience, Coen trusted first-timers. From the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. But Coen has pulled everyone and all elements together.

Following an early strong start, there was a risk that the season would go off the track. A mid-year collapse had the team stumbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller could have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off after that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just a single place ahead of peers.

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