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Ouch. On one hand, Australia's protracted bid to host the Cop31 next year has ended in clear failure.

It campaigned for over 36 months for the rights to put on the largest global environmental conference and green trade fair, which would have attracted tens of thousands of delegates to the South Australian capital next fall.

That's not happening. Rather, the summit known as Cop31 is headed to the tourist destination of Antalya, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Disappointment and Mixed Messages

This outcome will be a significant disappointment to many people who had hoped hosting the environmental gathering could help speed up Australia's transition from being a fossil fuel economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring international focus to the survival crisis facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been co-hosts.

The procedure that led to failure has been an unclear situation. In recent days, there have been questions that Anthony Albanese and other high-ranking officials truly desired the proposal to succeed. His statements were ambiguous at best. This led to stories in the local and global press saying the government was withdrawing.

This contrasted with the message being relayed at the climate negotiations in the city of Belem, where the environment minister, the climate minister, had just stated the country was "fully committed to success".

Ambiguous backing is a recurring problem for Australia's Cop31 bid. Although Bowen championed it, other senior members of the government have only sometimes appeared to be interested.

DFAT, traditionally responsible for international climate negotiations, has been disengaged and sometimes completely against.

Evidence suggests Albanese has viewed international climate meetings a important focus. He has missed one since becoming prime minister in 2022. We'll never know, but many may question if additional efforts were possible to get the bid over the line.

An Alternative View

That's one interpretation. However, another perspective to consider it.

Considering the Cop30 talks this week in South America – and from an international perspective – the decision on this week may, ironically, have been the best result available.

The minister outlined on that day an unprecedented deal that he was working on with his Turkish counterpart, the Turkish minister. The Turkish government would be the conference leader, organizer and effective event manager, and the Australian delegation – Bowen himself – would take on the position as "chief negotiator", managing almost all nations on the matters that the countries actually attend for – the talks on how to collectively combat the environmental emergency.

Additionally, there would be a greater focus on the Pacific region, including a lead-up event on an island nation.

Reasons for Doubt

There are plenty of grounds for doubt. Turkey and Australia do not have a strong partnership. Specific aspects of the agreement had not been completed at the time of writing. The entire arrangement could fall over before it begins.

But it could also be a way to recover value from what looked like an impending disaster for the international cooperation on climate change.

Turkey is widely seen in the global community as having been determined on causing havoc in the international climate negotiations. The system is supposed to work by unanimous agreement. Usually, that means if there are multiple countries in the race those with weaker backing either withdraw gracefully, or a deal is privately arranged to persuade them to step aside.

The Turkish bid clearly had weaker endorsement than Australia and Pacific islands to host Cop31. At least 24 of the 28 countries responsible for nominating next year's venue had supported the Australian bid.

However, uniquely, Turkey refused to yield. The word "bastardry" has been thrown around in the past week, and not just by Australians.

International Dynamics

Ankara's stubbornness can be interpreted as a manifestation of the fracturing geopolitical climate. With the US absent under the former president, there has been no major power with the heft to stare down the oil producers that offered the Turks with certain protection.

President Erdoğan is seen as aligned with the Russian leader. Some countries worried about a summit hindered from the top if his government led the negotiations. Germany did not want to have to organize an underprepared Cop31 at the UN environmental office in Bonn, which is what would have occurred under UN rules if the stalemate wasn't resolved.

A Creative Solution

A path through was needed. The UN system is imperfect and often disconcerting to watch, but multilateral action has empirically had an impact in the fight against global heating. This joint approach is a innovative solution that keeps that going when it is most crucial.

Despite reasonable concerns of the federal administration over its contradictory stance for increasing fossil fuel exports, climate activists who participate in UN conferences see the minister as a positive influence in the talks. He has been requested to co-chair discussion groups at each of the four conferences he has attended.

This matters. Although certain critics have downplayed the importance of a "chief negotiator", specialists from academic institutions and veteran observers at environmental negotiations assert it is crucial to their positive outcome.

"Each effective summit has been shaped by a leader holding the pen who can listen, build consensus and achieve an significant result. We saw that in Berlin in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. The reverse happened in Copenhagen in 2009," he says. "This position is critical at the conference other than making sure that people have food."

Remaining Concerns

There are plenty of unresolved issues. As an illustration, civil society is essential at climate conferences. How, if at all, can the Australian government do to prevent a crackdown on NGO participation by the Turkish leadership?

Perhaps not much. However, this doesn't prevent this deal appearing as the most promising opportunity possible to have a summit that may provide benefits for the Pacific region, the nation and the global community. This attempt is justified.