Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: hopeful statements are issued from various governments. Immense energy is allocated on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from Russian territory, a capacity enabled by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to engage hostile guided weapons flew past – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: several firings deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably delivered by partner states. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: maybe the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a automatic firearm fired at a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – probably allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: seven people killed, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a reliance that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to substitute in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership provoked deep reactions, debate and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from US leadership adheres to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, undoubtedly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership works based on a premise well known to international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does minimal to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the situation will not change more in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing lives and land but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: personal goals to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.
