🔗 Share this article Moving from Reluctant Admiration to Unease: Moscow Considers the Fall of Venezuela's Leader. A shock assault on the capital in the dead of night, culminating in the seizure of the country's president. Within a day, the intervening power announces its plan to rule for an indefinite period. That is precisely how Vladimir Putin envisaged his large-scale offensive of Ukraine playing out in early 2022. In reality, it was Donald Trump who executed it in Venezuela, in a move widely condemned internationally, whisking away the Kremlin's historic ally Nicolás Maduro, who now faces trial in New York. Official Outrage and Private Thoughts Officially, Russian officials have reacted with anger, condemning the attack as a blatant breach of global norms and a worrying development. But behind the official statements, there is a sense of grudging respect – and even envy – at the efficiency of a power grab that Russia once planned, but failed to execute due to a series of intelligence blunders and Ukraine's strong resistance. “The operation was carried out with precision,” noted the Kremlin-aligned online channel Dva Mayora. “In all probability, this is exactly how our 'military campaign' was meant to unfold: fast, decisive and decisive. It’s hard to believe Russia's top general expected to be fighting for four years.” Such commentary have fueled a atmosphere of soul-searching among pro-war voices, with some publicly wondering how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly conflict. Olga Uskova, said she felt “shame” on behalf of her country given how audacious the US intervention appeared to be. “In the space of a day, the US detained Venezuela's leader and apparently concluded his own 'special military operation,’” she stated. Allies in Decline For more than two decades, Venezuela sought to cultivate a web of partners opposed to Washington – from Russia and China to Havana and Tehran – in the hope of forging a new axis able to challenge Washington. However, even with Moscow's top diplomat vowing backing for the Caracas government just in late December, hardly any experts ever believed Moscow would come to his rescue. Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, seen other important partners lose influence or deteriorate significantly – from Bashar al-Assad to an increasingly weakened Iran – laying bare the limits of the Kremlin's global influence. “For Russia, the situation is deeply uncomfortable,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a close partner and ideological ally, and Maduro and Putin have longstanding ties, leaving Moscow with no option but to express outrage. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so distant is simply not feasible – for practical and operational reasons.” The Ukraine Priority Analysts point to a more practical calculation. The Kremlin's main focus, analysts say, is Ukraine – and keeping a productive dialogue with Trump on that issue far outweighs the destiny of Caracas. “The Russian and American leaders are currently focused on a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a broader geopolitical contest with a critical partner over what it sees as a lesser priority,” the analyst concluded. Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks Nevertheless, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a pro-American administration were to emerge in Caracas, American military specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia. Those include S-300VM air-defence systems delivered in 2013, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025. Moscow has also extended billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered. A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is oil: American control over Venezuela's enormous oilfields could depress international oil prices, threatening one of Russia's most important sources of income. “If our American 'partners' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.” A Dark Optimism Still, some in Moscow see room for a grim silver lining. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they contend, could strike a decisive blow to the rules-based international order and pave the way for a more openly 19th-century-style world – one where might, rather than rules, determines results. “Team Trump is tough and cynical in advancing its country's interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev with endorsement. “Removing Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The law of the strongest is evidently more powerful than international law.”
A shock assault on the capital in the dead of night, culminating in the seizure of the country's president. Within a day, the intervening power announces its plan to rule for an indefinite period. That is precisely how Vladimir Putin envisaged his large-scale offensive of Ukraine playing out in early 2022. In reality, it was Donald Trump who executed it in Venezuela, in a move widely condemned internationally, whisking away the Kremlin's historic ally Nicolás Maduro, who now faces trial in New York. Official Outrage and Private Thoughts Officially, Russian officials have reacted with anger, condemning the attack as a blatant breach of global norms and a worrying development. But behind the official statements, there is a sense of grudging respect – and even envy – at the efficiency of a power grab that Russia once planned, but failed to execute due to a series of intelligence blunders and Ukraine's strong resistance. “The operation was carried out with precision,” noted the Kremlin-aligned online channel Dva Mayora. “In all probability, this is exactly how our 'military campaign' was meant to unfold: fast, decisive and decisive. It’s hard to believe Russia's top general expected to be fighting for four years.” Such commentary have fueled a atmosphere of soul-searching among pro-war voices, with some publicly wondering how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly conflict. Olga Uskova, said she felt “shame” on behalf of her country given how audacious the US intervention appeared to be. “In the space of a day, the US detained Venezuela's leader and apparently concluded his own 'special military operation,’” she stated. Allies in Decline For more than two decades, Venezuela sought to cultivate a web of partners opposed to Washington – from Russia and China to Havana and Tehran – in the hope of forging a new axis able to challenge Washington. However, even with Moscow's top diplomat vowing backing for the Caracas government just in late December, hardly any experts ever believed Moscow would come to his rescue. Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, seen other important partners lose influence or deteriorate significantly – from Bashar al-Assad to an increasingly weakened Iran – laying bare the limits of the Kremlin's global influence. “For Russia, the situation is deeply uncomfortable,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a close partner and ideological ally, and Maduro and Putin have longstanding ties, leaving Moscow with no option but to express outrage. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so distant is simply not feasible – for practical and operational reasons.” The Ukraine Priority Analysts point to a more practical calculation. The Kremlin's main focus, analysts say, is Ukraine – and keeping a productive dialogue with Trump on that issue far outweighs the destiny of Caracas. “The Russian and American leaders are currently focused on a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a broader geopolitical contest with a critical partner over what it sees as a lesser priority,” the analyst concluded. Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks Nevertheless, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a pro-American administration were to emerge in Caracas, American military specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia. Those include S-300VM air-defence systems delivered in 2013, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025. Moscow has also extended billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered. A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is oil: American control over Venezuela's enormous oilfields could depress international oil prices, threatening one of Russia's most important sources of income. “If our American 'partners' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.” A Dark Optimism Still, some in Moscow see room for a grim silver lining. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they contend, could strike a decisive blow to the rules-based international order and pave the way for a more openly 19th-century-style world – one where might, rather than rules, determines results. “Team Trump is tough and cynical in advancing its country's interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev with endorsement. “Removing Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The law of the strongest is evidently more powerful than international law.”