Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified points, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
